Original-Research: Scandinavian Astor Group AB (von NuWays AG): BUY

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Original-Research: Scandinavian Astor Group AB - from NuWays AG

26.03.2025 / 09:01 CET/CEST

Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS

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Classification of NuWays AG to Scandinavian Astor Group AB

Company Name: Scandinavian Astor Group AB

ISIN: SE0019175274

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

from: 26.03.2025

Target price: SEK 30.00

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Henry Wendisch

Bullish new mid-term targets & capital increase for further M&A

Yesterday, Astor announced bullish new mid-term targets and resolved a SEK

150m capital increase to fund further acquisitions. In detail:

Bullish new mid-term targets: As previously flagged, we regarded the old

mid-term targets (> SEK 400m sales and > 15% EBITDA margin by FY'26e) as

conservative, given the strong recent performance. Now, Astor targets SEK

2.5bn in sales (incl. M&A) and more than 15% EBITDA margin, which is well

above our current estimate (eNuW: SEK 586m sales in FY'28e with a 24% EBITDA

margin) as we do not model any M&A. Nevertheless, this would imply sales to

10x and EBITDA to at least 20x over the next 4 years, highlighting the

enormous growth planned.

Well filled M&A pipeline: Astor has several targets in an advanced stage of

discussion whose combined turnover exceeds SEK 500m with an implied EBITDA

margin of at least 12%. Given the last 6 acquisitions over the last 15

months (combined turnover of SEK 166m with a 17% EBITDA margin, see p. 2 for

details), Astor seems to increase the M&A pace significantly. However, until

first deals are signed and thus purchase price multiples become visible, we

cannot assess the pipeline's value accretion potential. Nevertheless, we

expect Astor to not exceed 8-10x EV/EBITDA, given its recent M&A history

(6.3x EV/

EBITDA).

Capital increase to fund acquisitions. In order to finance the potential

acquisitions, Astor resolved a SEK 150m capital increase, exceeding the

original target of SEK 125m, via an accelerated bookbuilding without

subscription rights yesterday after market close (6.5m new shares placed at

SEK 24 per share). Also, a share of the proceeds is intended to finance

growth CAPEX in the form of production capacity. Consequently, Astor should

now have a cash position of c. SEK 179m by Q1'25e (vs. SEK 50m at Y/E'24),

giving the company a well-filled M&A war chest, in our view. (see p. 2 for

details)

In sum, Astor's engines (M&A and organic performance) are running at full

speed. Further value-accretive M&A (as evidenced in the last 15 months) soon

after the capital increase, should overcompensate the remaining

shareholder's dilution, in our view. Therefore, we reiterate our BUY

recommendation with an unchanged PT of SEK 30.00, based on DCF.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/32062.pdf

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss

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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

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2106412 26.03.2025 CET/CEST

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