Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA (von NuWays AG): BUY

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Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA - from NuWays AG

24.01.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST

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Classification of NuWays AG to Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA

Company Name: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA

ISIN: DE0005493092

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

from: 24.01.2025

Target price: EUR 5.50

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Philipp Sennewald

Sahin released following 4 consecutive losses

Topic: Following Tuesday's loss in the UCL against Bologna, a team that had

so far not won a game in the campaign, management decided to part ways with

head coach Nuri Sahin.

According to CSO Lars Ricken, management lost faith that Sahin, who just

took over from Edin Terzic in Summer 2024, is still able to achieve the

sporting objectives for the current season. In our view, this step is

totally sensible following 4 consecutive losses to start 2025 as well as

only one win from the last nine games and 10th place in the Bundesliga. Even

the, until Tuesday, good performances in the UCL could not hide the fact

that the team is underperforming this season. Mind you, BVB ranks 4th in

squad value but is currently 7 points behind the crucial 4th place in the

league table (UCL qualification), lagging teams like Freiburg, Bremen or

Mainz, which in fact have a lower combined squad value. Given this

situation, the release of Sahin was unavoidable in order to still achieve

the goal of a Top-4 finish.

For the game against Bremen on Saturday, Under-19 coach Mike Tullberg will

be in temporarily in charge. We expect a new coach to be announced next week

before the away game against Heidenheim. In our view, the team clearly has

the strength and quality to achieve this with 48 points still to be awarded.

Yet, qualification for the UCL is at risk, as it does also does not seem

like Germany will be awarded an extra spot again given that the association

currently ranks 6th (2nd place needed). However, we keep our estimates for

FY25/26e unchanged for the time being, given that also the FIFA CWC is

offering upside, which we have not accounted for thus far as FIFA has not

released prize money details yet.

On a positive note, BVB has secured a spot in the UCL play-off round despite

the loss against Bologna. Nonetheless, the likelihood of reaching a Top-8

finish declined to 12% according to Opta based on the results of the other

teams. However, with a finish between 9th and 12th, which we regard as

highly likely, BVB would face a team from the lower standings in the

play-offs, giving the team a good chance of reaching the round of 16.

BUY with an unchanged EUR 5.50 PT based on DDM.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31659.pdf

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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2073941 24.01.2025 CET/CEST

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