Original-Research: R. Stahl AG (von NuWays AG): Buy

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Original-Research: R. Stahl AG - from NuWays AG

08.01.2025 / 09:01 CET/CEST

Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS

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Classification of NuWays AG to R. Stahl AG

Company Name: R. Stahl AG

ISIN: DE000A1PHBB5

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: Buy

from: 08.01.2025

Target price: EUR 25.00

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Christian Sandherr

Mixed FY25e outlook due to low order books

Topic: After a convincing FY24e, we see another solid year for R. Stahl

ahead. However, due to a low order book and an uninspiring demand in Q3,

sales and earnings could potentially be soft in H1'25e.

R. Stahl started with a solid order intake of EUR 181m (book-to-bill 1.04x)

into the first half of FY24e before demand came down to EUR 74m in Q3

(book-to-bill 0.85x). A major reason is the still struggling European

chemical industry where investments remain on a historically low level. In

addition, larger decisions were delayed during the months before the

presidential election in the US. Nevertheless, there should be a catch-up

effect in Q4'24e and Q1'25e. Beyond that, president-elect Trump is expected

to be a positive driver for the oil and gas industry.

While sales in Q3 still benefited from a sound backlog in the oil and gas

industry in Americas, the order book has come down considerably to EUR 108m

end of 9M'24 (vs. EUR 132m 9M'23). Consequently, we expect to see sales coming

down for Q4'24e (eNuW: EUR 83m). Further, due to the lower visibility, H1'25e

is now more dependent on new order intake in Q4'24 and H1'25e. For FY25e, we

expect sales to slightly increase to EUR 355m, despite a potentially weaker

H1.

We also expect the adj. EBITDA margin to improve slightly (eNuW: 10.8%),

thanks to the EXcelerate strategy program. The implementation of the program

created one-time costs of c. EUR 3.7m in 9M'24 (c. EUR 4.5m in total until

9M'24) and should amortize within 1-2 years as stated in the Q3 CC. On the

other hand, pressure from wage inflation should persist throughout FY25e,

although we expect the overall headcount to slightly decrease. Adj. EBITDA

is seen to stay at a solid level of EUR 38m (eNuW).

Even though the upcoming quarters might be challenging, we continue to be

optimistic in the mid- to long term. R. Stahl is not losing market share due

to its positive brand recognition and it's just a matter of time until the

demand for R. Stahl's explosion protection products recovers back.

We reiterate our BUY rating with an unchanged PT of EUR 25 based on DCF.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31591.pdf

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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2063199 08.01.2025 CET/CEST

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