Original-Research: MLP SE (von NuWays AG): Buy

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Original-Research: MLP SE - from NuWays AG

15.11.2024 / 09:00 CET/CEST

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Classification of NuWays AG to MLP SE

Company Name: MLP SE

ISIN: DE0006569908

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: Buy

from: 15.11.2024

Target price: EUR 12.00

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Henry Wendisch

Q3 in line, guidance at top end or above achievable

Q3 sales increased by 19% yoy to EUR 245m (eNuW: EUR 242m; 9M: EUR 746m, %

yoy), driven by a EUR 17m sales effect of performance fees (vs. Q3'23: EUR 0.1m)

but also a solid underlying development (sales ex performance % yoy). The

competence field Wealth drove sales by 36% yoy to EUR 140m (eNuW: EUR 128m; EUR

123m sales ex performance fees, up 19% yoy), whereas Life & Health sales

also increased by 2% yoy to EUR 68m (eNuW: EUR 70m) followed by P&C sales of EUR

35m, up 2% yoy (eNuW: EUR 35m). Noteworthy, the RE business saw a two-faced

development, where RE brokerage rose by 191% yoy and 17% qoq to EUR 10m (eNuW:

EUR 8m) but RE development remained nonexistent at EUR 0m sales (eNuW: EUR 1m).

EBIT expanded sharply by 128% yoy to EUR 17.8m (eNuW: EUR 18.2m), benefiting

from a EUR 11m performance fee EBIT contribution (eNuW; c. 65% incremental

margin). On the other hand, underlying profitability (EBIT ex perf. fee

effect) decreased by 13% yoy due to higher OPEX (% yoy).

Guidance confirmed: FY'24 guidance (EBIT: EUR 85-95m) confirmed: Based on a EUR

66m EBIT per 9M, the guidance implies a Q4 EBIT in the range of EUR 19-29m

(eNuW: EUR 28m, not including significant performance fees). This also

compares well to previous periods' EBIT of EUR 23m (Q4'22, no perf. fees) and

EUR 25m (Q4'23, no perf. fees), which were both burdened by goodwill

impairments in the RE segment (EUR 3m in Q4'22; EUR 4m in Q4'23). Consequently,

we are positioned at the top end of the guidance (eNuW: EUR 95m). Moreover,

should capital markets continue to perform well until Y/E'24e, performance

fees could be in the cards and the guidance could be overachieved. For next

year, MLP's midterm targets (EBIT EUR 100-110m; eNuW: EUR 102m) will become the

FY'25e guidance and new mid-term targets are to be published with FY'24

results in March '25.

Dividend increase after 3 years likely: Based on MLP's targeted pay-out

ratio of 50-70% (eNuW: 60%) and EPS estimate of EUR 0.64, the FY'24e dividend

should amount to EUR 0.36 per share, implying a 20% yoy increase and a current

yield of 6%. Mind you, that the dividend is tax free according to § 27 KStG.

All in all, MLP remains fully on track to achieve this and next year's

targets this year and should continue to show improvements going forward

thanks to its well diversified business model with a large share of

recurring revenues. Therefore, we keep MLP in our NuWays' Alpha List and

reiterate our BUY recommendation with unchanged PT of EUR 12.00, based on

FCFY'24e.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31331.pdf

For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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