Original-Research: MAX Automation SE (von NuWays AG): Buy

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Original-Research: MAX Automation SE - from NuWays AG

21.03.2025 / 09:06 CET/CEST

Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS

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Classification of NuWays AG to MAX Automation SE

Company Name: MAX Automation SE

ISIN: DE000A2DA588

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: Buy

from: 21.03.2025

Target price: E'UR 7.00

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Konstantin Völk

Mixed FY24 due to investment reluctance in automotive; Chg.

Topic: MAX published mixed FY24 numbers roughly in line with our

expectations. Further, management released a conservative FY25e guidance due

to the cyclical nature of the business and a volatile order

intake due to macro-economic insecurity. However, in the long-run the

investment case remains fully intact. FY24 sales declined 7.9% yoy to EUR 366m

(eNuW: EUR 361m) as a result of investment reluctance due to

macroeconomic uncertainties especially in the automotive sector. Q4 sales

decreased 13.6% yoy to EUR 93m (eNuW: EUR 88m).

Order intake came in at EUR 314m, 7.9% below last year, leading to a

noticeable reduction in order backlog to EUR 154m (EUR 206m in FY23). Demand was

in particular soft for bdtronic (-28%) and NSM Jücker (-25%), both with

material exposure to automotive. For instance, new registrations of

battery-electric vehicles in Germany recorded a decline of 27% last year.

Nevertheless, MAX's largest holding Vecoplan (45% of sales) increased order

intake by 7.2% to EUR 155m thanks to strong demand in the Recycling/ Waste

segment and despite uncertainties in the North American market.

FY24 EBITDA decreased by 15.3% yoy to EUR 29.3m (eNuW: EUR 30.1m) due to a lower

top-line and an increase in personnel costs which amounted to 35.2% of total

operating performance (vs. 30.1% in FY23). This was despite a positive

one-time effect of EUR 4.5m from a litigation in connection with the sale of

NSM Packtec in 2018. The FY EBITDA margin decreased by 0.7ppts yoy to a

still solid 8.0% considering the current macro-economic environment. Q4

EBITDA came in at EUR 4.4m, a 32% decrease yoy (4.7% margin, -1.3ppts).

Bdtronic's sales decreased by only 9.7% yoy to EUR 94m (eNuW: EUR 90m) despite a

significant drop in order ntake during 9M'24 thanks to a strong order

backlog at the beginning of the year. Due to the decrease in backlog (EUR 34m

vs EUR 52m end of FY23), the FY25e top-line will be more dependent on new

demand. Although Q4 showed a solid order intake of EUR 25m, we remain cautious

in the short-term as the uncertainty in the automotive sector is still high

and many Tier 1 supplier and OEMs hesitate to invest in larger projects.

EBITDA decreased sharply by 75% yoy burdened by an increase in headcount

(559 employees on average vs. 480 in FY23), a high share of external

personnel and project delays which resulted in higher costs in the

impregnation segment. However, costly external personnel which was hired in

FY23 in response to the rapid increase in demand was significantly reduced

during FY24e and will not be a material factor for FY25e. Further, the

delayed and unprofitable projects in the impregnation segment should only

contribute slightly to sales in the current year. Thus, we are cautiously

optimistic about bdtronic's profitability this year.

Vecoplan's sales came in at EUR 165m, 7.5% below last year created by

investment reluctance in the North American market (44% of FY24 sales) and

project delays. On a positive note, order intake rose by 7.2% yoy thanks to

a market recovery in the Recycling/Waste segment. EBITDA decreased by 14.2%

yoy to EUR 17.5m due to an increase in headcount and an unfavorable product

mix. Going into FY25e, we expect a stable top-line (eNuW: EUR 169m) and EBITDA

development (EUR 18m).

FY25e guidance: Management released a broad guidance range for FY25e which

reflects the lower visibility for H2'25e due to a lower order backlog as

well as the currently unpredictable economic policy in the US. Sales are

expected to come in between EUR 340-400m (eNuW: EUR 364m) and EBITDA between EUR

21-28m (eNuW: EUR 24.9m), which looks plausible in our view.

Reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of EUR 7.00, based on DCF.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/32036.pdf

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NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

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Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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2104156 21.03.2025 CET/CEST

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