Original-Research: MAX Automation SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

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Original-Research: MAX Automation SE - from NuWays AG

09.01.2025 / 09:05 CET/CEST

Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS

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Classification of NuWays AG to MAX Automation SE

Company Name: MAX Automation SE

ISIN: DE000A2DA588

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

Target price: EUR 7.00

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Konstantin Völk

Mixed FY25e outlook due to restrained demand; chg. est.

Topic: After an already muted FY24e, we expect the situation to remain

challenging during FY25e. Nevertheless, mid-term prospects continue to be

solid and the investment case remains intact.

Thus far, sales in 9M'24 declined by 5.8% due to a soft order backlog and

investment reluctance across all portfolio companies except ELWEMA. With a

book-to-bill ratio of 0.86x, the order backlog decreased 19.8% yoy to only EUR

165m end of 9M'24. This should put further pressure on top-line growth for

FY25e in addition to low order intake numbers. Hence, we expect sales to

come in at EUR 364m, showing a flat development yoy. Moreover, we expect

EBITDA to decline to EUR 25m due to increasing personnel costs and a EUR 4.5m

positive one-off in Q3'24 from a litigation in connection with the sale of

NSM Packtec.

The situation is particular troublesome for bdtronic due to low order

intakes affected by the EV crisis. Especially Germany showed decreasing EV

(excluding PHEV) registrations of 26% yoy in 11M'24 (source: VDA) due to the

abrupt end of the environmental bonus in December 2023. In addition, the

supply of affordable cars from China increases the competition for

bdtronic's core market (Germany 35% of sales in FY23, other Europe 33%).

While FY24e was still able to benefit from a solid order book at the end of

FY23, FY25e should be affected increasingly from the recently declined

backlogs (EUR 30m 9M'24 vs. EUR 76m 9M'23). Consequently, we expect a material

sales decline to EUR 77m next year and EBITDA to remain on a low level due to

negative operating leverage and the increased headcount during 2023. Having

said that, bdtronic remains a leading expert in its field and once the

cyclical demand recovers, we expect top- and bottom-line to normalize.

On the other hand, Elwema shows resilience. Thanks to a steady stream of

follow-up orders (% yoy order intake in 9M'24) and long lead times of

12-18 months, the company has secured already well enough projects for

FY25e. Hence, we expect to see mid- to high single digit growth rates for

FY25e.

Sale of MA micro supports bottom-line: MAX received c. EUR 70m cash inflow for

the sale of MA micro in Q3'24, of which c. EUR 60m was used to reduce debt.

This should lead to an interest expense reduction of EUR 4-5m in FY25e (eNuW)

supporting the bottom-line substantially and could potentially even lead to

an increase in earnings from continuing operations (eNuW FY25e EUR 6.2m vs. EUR

5.5m in FY24e).

Reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of EUR 7.00, based on DCF.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31603.pdf

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NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

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Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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2064075 09.01.2025 CET/CEST

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