Original-Research: Marley Spoon Group SE (von NuWays AG): Buy

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Original-Research: Marley Spoon Group SE - from NuWays AG

05.11.2024 / 09:01 CET/CEST

Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS

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Classification of NuWays AG to Marley Spoon Group SE

Company Name: Marley Spoon Group SE

ISIN: LU2380748603

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: Buy

from: 05.11.2024

Target price: EUR 4.90

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Christian Sandherr

All eyes of profitability // strategic repositioning confirmed

Marley Spoon reported solid Q3 2024 results, with sales reaching EUR 84m, up

8% yoy (9M sales -1% yoy). This was carried by the continued execution of

the company's strategic priorities, visible in a rise of order frequency of

active subscribers (% yoy), improved average order volume (% yoy),

slowed customer churn but also the successful integration of Bistro MD.

However, the total number of active subscribers declined slightly,

influenced by ongoing seasonality and reduced reliance on deep discounting.

Yet, the company is increasingly witnessing a stabilization with a customer

base focusing more on quality and retention.

Importantly, Marley Spoon achieved a fourth consecutive quarter of positive

operating EBITDA, posting EUR 2m, a EUR 3.7m yoy improvement (9M op. EBITDA EUR

3.9m). This turnaround is largely the result of the high contribution margin

of 34.5% (.1pp yoy), a testament to the company's successful efforts in

shifting its discount-heavy acquisition strategy to focus on customer

lifetime value and order size but also positive implications from an

improving product mix in the US as a result of the bistroMD acquisition.

Further, the company's tight grip on G&A and marketing expenses reflect the

successful pivot toward a more sustainable growth model that emphasizes

profitability.

Upgraded FY24 contribution margin guidance. Thanks to notable contribution

margin improvements across the group's end markets (9M: .3-3.1pp yoy) the

company raised its FY24 expectations from previously flat yoy to a 2.8-3.1pp

yoy increase. The previous op. EBITDA guidance of a mid-single EURm figure was

confirmed. Yet, sales growth vs 2023 is now seen to come in flat to low

single-digit (in constant currency).

Overall, the investment case, which is based on the sustainable turnaround,

remains intact. From 2025e onwards, the company looks set to return to

growth thanks to a further stabilizing subscriber figure but also an

increasing LTV of new subscribers (i.e. higher retention and increasing

AOV/AOF). With this, Marley Spoon is on track to reach profitability and a

positive free cash flow during the end of 2026e.

BUY with a EUR 4.9 PT (old: EUR 5.40) based on DCF.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31181.pdf

For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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2022273 05.11.2024 CET/CEST

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