Original-Research: Flughafen Wien AG (von NuWays AG): Hold

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Original-Research: Flughafen Wien AG - from NuWays AG

09.10.2024 / 09:00 CET/CEST

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Classification of NuWays AG to Flughafen Wien AG

Company Name: Flughafen Wien AG

ISIN: AT00000VIE62

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: Hold

from: 09.10.2024

Target price: EUR 59.00

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Henry Wendisch

Conference Feedback: Building up cash until decision day

Last week, we hosted FWAG European MidCap Conference in Paris with some

insightful meetings. As neither an airport nor the city of Vienna needs much

explanation, discussions quickly turned towards current and future CAPEX

projects, the shareholder structure and FWAG's capital allocation. Here are

our key takeaways:

Decision for 3rd runway until 2026e: Next to the current CAPEX project

(Terminal 3 South Expansion, eNuW: EUR 425m total CAPEX until FY'27e), the

decision to plan a third runway by 2033 is still pending. However, a final

decision is to be made by FWAG until FY'26e and should resolve the current

uncertainty. While the CAPEX volume for the third runway is to early to tell

and undisclosed, it should nevertheless should go into the billions (eNuW: EUR

1.5-3bn). Until then, FWAG should resume its current dividend policy and

stores its excess cash in time deposits.

Positive decision: In the event of a positive decision, we expect the

building process to start shortly after which will kick off a large CAPEX

cycle with muted FCFs. Although FWAG operates debt free with a EUR 349m cash

pile (per H1'24 and eNuW: EUR 600-750m by Y/E'27e), additional financing to

stem the project would become necessary, in our view. Here, either a capital

increase via the stock exchange or a debt intake to of up to 2-3x EBITDA

(current peer group's average) or a combination are thinkable.

Negative decision: in this case, the third runway would not be built for at

least one or two generations, meaning that FWAG could improve its capital

structure and put the excess cash to good use in the form of special

dividends, share buybacks and M&A.

In both ways, the final decision should serve as a pivotal moment, defining

the future of the airport operator, in our view. Towards which decision

management will eventually go for remains unforeseeable for us.

In another topic, the discussions turned towards the current shareholder

structure, with only 6% of free float and IFM holding 44%. Here, decisions

of IFM to potentially increase, reduce or maintain its current shareholding

are all viable options, but also unforeseeable from the outside.

For the time being, FWAG remains a HOLD with an unchanged PTof EUR 59.00,

based on DCF.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31015.pdf

For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

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2004655 09.10.2024 CET/CEST

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