Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA (von NuWays AG): Buy

17.03.2025, 09:01

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t-online aktuell 17.03.2025

Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA - from NuWays AG

17.03.2025 / 09:01 CET/CEST

Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS

Group.

The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The

result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an

invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.

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Classification of NuWays AG to Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA

Company Name: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA

ISIN: DE0005493092

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: Buy

from: 17.03.2025

Target price: EUR 5.20

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Philipp Sennewald

No Kovac effect so far but UCL quarterfinal spot secured; chg.

Thanks to a 2-1 away victory in the second leg of the UCL round of 16

against Lille, BVB secured a spot in the 2024/25 UCL quarterfinals. Here,

the team will face Hansi Flick's FC Barcelona, a matchup which should see

BVB as the clear underdog. Yet, BVB has shown in the past, especially during

last season's knock-out stage, that the team is able to compete with and

even eliminate seemingly stronger opponents as well.

By reaching the quarterfinals, BVB also secured another EUR 12.5m in UEFA

prize money as well as an additional home game. Especially the prize money

should not just push FY24/25 top- but also significantly the bottom-line, as

despite bonus payments to players, de facto no incremental costs are

incurred. Should the team be able to eliminate Barcelona and reach the

semifinals, the company would generate another EUR 15m prize money as well as

a further home game. Here, the team would face either Bayern Munich or Inter

Milan.

Rough Bundesliga performance. Following two consecutive Bundesliga victories

(1st time this season), BVB lost its home game against Augsburg the week

before and now lost their away game at Leipzig, leaving the team in 11th

place, 10 points behind the top 4. Mind you, a top 4 finish is needed to

qualify for the upcoming UCL season, while positions 5-6 allow for UEFA

Europa League (UEL) qualification and position 7 results in participation in

the UEFA Europa Conference League (UECL). Currently BVB is 4 points behind

6th and 3 points behind 7th. The only other option to qualify for the UCL is

to win the current competition.

Should BVB not qualify for an international competition or qualify for

either UEL or UECL, this would imply significantly lower UEFA prize money

payments. While the overall prize money in the UCL is EUR 2.44bn, it is only EUR

565m in the UEL and EUR 285m in the UECL. According to our calculations, BVB

would generate EUR 78m in a UCL season (round of 16), while the amount would

be only EUR 23m in the UEL (quarterfinals) and only EUR 14m in the UECL

(semifinals).

As it is becoming increasingly unlikely for the club to reach the top 4, we

have adjusted our estimates by taking into account the probabilities of

reaching the UCL, UEL, UECL, or no international competition at all, using

the corresponding expected value. On the other hand, FIFA finally put out a

prize money figure for the FIFA CWC this summer, while still not providing

distribution details. Overall prize money will amount to $ 1bn, implying an

average sum of $ 31.3m per participant. Thus, we conservatively estimate BVB

to receive this average value. As the tournament crosses FY24/25 and

FY25/26, we attributed half the amount towards this year's P&L estimate and

the other half into the next year. Mind you, this is still leaving upside,

as BVB is seen as the clear favorite in their group (details here) and could

potentially be set for a deep knock-out stage run.

While the short-term outlook might be rather muted, the club remains one of

the top-teams in Europe based on the strategic fundamentals built over the

last 15 years. Even if the team would miss out on 2025/26 UCL qualification,

we are certain that it will jump back the next season based on a highly

talented squad. Also, the new coach might need the summer break to adjust

the squad according to his wishes.

We reiterate our BUY recommendation with a new PT of EUR 5.20 (old: EUR 5.50)

based on DCF.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31994.pdf

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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