Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA (von NuWays AG): Buy

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Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA - from NuWays AG

12.02.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST

Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS

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Classification of NuWays AG to Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA

Company Name: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA

ISIN: DE0005493092

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: Buy

from: 12.02.2025

Target price: EUR 5.50

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Henry Wendisch

H1 prelims broadly in line / Mixed start into Kovac era; chg.

Topic: BVB released H1/Q2 results, which came in softer than in the year

before due to lower transfer income, yet being in line with our estimates.

Moreover, Niko Kovac meanwhile finished his second game as head coach - so

far with a mixed record. In detail:

Q2 sales decreased 11.1% yoy to EUR 137.2m (eNuW: EUR 140.5m). This was mainly

driven by a decline in match operations sales of EUR 17.3m (-13.3% yoy; eNuW:

EUR 17.9m) caused by a fewer amount of home games (8 vs 10 in prior year) as

well as reduced TV marketing sales of EUR 59.0m (-17.4% yoy; eNuW: 60.7m). The

latter was mainly driven by the longer league phase of the UCL meaning that

income from international TV marketing is recognized at a later date during

the year compared to the previous year.

On this basis and following reduced transfer income, Q2 EBITDA decreased to

EUR 33.0m (eNuW: EUR 34.9m). Yet, given an H1 EBITDA of EUR 58.7m, BVB remains

fully on track to achieve its FY24/25 guidance of EUR 110-120m EBITDA. While

the departure of Donyell Malen to Aston Villa should affect H2 EBITDA

positively, the head coach change should have the opposite effect. Mind you,

that we still have not accounted for the CWC this summer, as FIFA is yet to

disclose prize money details. Hence, there is still upside to our estimates.

Unlucky Bundesliga debut for Kovac. Last weekend, Niko Kovac coached his

first match in the Bundesliga, which BVB lost 1-2 at home against Stuttgart,

one of the team competitors in the race for a top-4 finish. Despite the

defeat we regard the performance as solid, and the win for Stuttgart as

rather lucky. That being said, BVB currently is in 11th place, 7 points

behind 4th. In this regard, it appears challenging but still well possible

to achieve the UCL qualification for the coming season, which is why we

remain our estimates for the FY25/26e.

UCL. On the contrary to the Bundesliga, BVB yesterday won the first leg of

the play-off round 3-0 at Sporting Lisbon, which hands the team a strong

advantage for the second leg next Wednesday. Mind you, BVB will play either

Lille or Aston Villa, should they advance to the round of 16. Both teams

should be beatable for the team, which is thus leaving a certain upside to

our estimates (round of 16 exit).

Reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of EUR 5.50 based on DCF.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31735.pdf

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NuWays AG - Equity Research

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2084853 12.02.2025 CET/CEST

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